This article documents a current event. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses.

The Adel al-Jubeir assassination plot was an alleged conspiracy tied to the Iranian government to assassinate Saudi ambassador Adel al-Jubeir in the United States. On 11 October 2011, two Iranians, Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, were charged in a New York federal court with plotting to assassinate Al-Jubeir.^[1] According to U.S. officials, the two planned to kill him with a bomb and subsequently bomb the Saudi embassy and the Israeli embassy in Washington, D.C. Subsequent bombings in the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, were also discussed.^[2] This has been considered by the United States to be an attempted terrorist plot.^[3] Arbabsiar was arrested on 29 September 2011, at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, while Shakuri remains at large.^[4] According to U.S. officials, no one was ever in any immediate danger from the plot.^[5]

[edit] Alleged plot

On 11 October 2011, FBI director Robert Mueller held a press conference and described a conspiracy involving monitored international calls, Mexican drug money and an attempt to blow up Jubeir. “Though it reads like the pages of a Hollywood script, the impact would have been very real and many lives would have been lost,” Mueller said.^[6] United States Attorney General Eric Holder alleged that the plot was directed by elements of the Iranian government.^[7] At least one investigator has speculated that the men may have been acting as rogue elements in the Iranian government, rather than the actual government itself. “It’s so outside their normal track of activity”, said a senior law enforcement official who had been involved in the investigation and would speak only on the condition of anonymity. “It’s a rogue plan or they’re using very different tactics. We just don’t know.”^[8] The government of Iran has denied the accusations.^[9]

[edit] Arrest and alleged confession

Manssor Arbabsiar, age 56, is a naturalized U.S. citizen holding an Iranian passport.^[10] He was arrested by federal agents at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York.^[7] Officials said Arbabsiar flew from Iran through Frankfurt, Germany, to Mexico City on 29 September for a final planning session, but was refused entry to Mexico. He was deported back to Iran, and put on a plane to New York, where he was arrested in transit.^[11] According to the DOJ, Arbabsiar waived his Miranda rights shortly after his arrest and allegedly confessed to his participation in the plot.^[12]
The Department of Justice claims that Gholam Shakuri is a member of Iran’s special operations unit Quds Force and is still at large.^[7]
Iran’s permanent U.N. representative called the confession “suspicious claims by an individual”, and suggested his claims were fabricated.^[13]

[edit] Alleged responsibility

Some Middle East experts are puzzled over why Iran would carry out such an attack. Source: VOA

A debate exists whether or not the highest echelons of the Iranian government ordered or even knew of the assassination plot. U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that it was “more than likely” that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as head of the Quds Force, Major General Qassem Suleimani, knew of the plot.^[14] No specific information has yet been provided to support such a link, but American officials said it was inconceivable that in Iran’s hierarchy Khamenei or Suleimani would not be aware of such an action.^[15] The officials did acknowledge, though, that the plot was far “outside the pattern” of the Quds Force past activity.^[14]
At the same time, a number of prominent Iran experts have questioned the Iranian government’s link to the plot.^[15][16] Some believe it was probably just rogue elements in the Iranian government. Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow at The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said much of what was known of the plot did “not fit the usual patterns of Iran’s involvement with terrorist activities. It seems quite credible to me that it could be rogue elements, but I don’t know to what degree the Iranian military tolerates such dissent.”^[17] Alireza Nader, an Iran analyst at the Rand Corporation, found it “difficult” to believe that Khamenei or Suleimani would order such an attack that “would put all of Iran’s objectives and strategies at risk”.^[16]

[edit] Criticism

Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst at the Congressional Research Service, said, “There is simply no precedent – or even reasonable rationale – for Iran working any plot, no matter where located, through a non-Muslim proxy such as Mexican drug gangs…. The Iranian modus operandi is only to trust sensitive plots to their own employees, or to trusted proxies such as Hezbollah, Saudi Hezbollah, Hamas, the Sadr faction in Iraq, Iran-friendly extremist Muslims in Afghanistan and other pro-Iranian Muslim groups.”^[18]
Reza Sayyah from CNN questioned the plausibility of the claim by asking, “Did an elite branch of Iran’s military handpick a divorced, 56-year-old Iranian-American used-car salesman from Texas to hire a hitman from a Mexican drug cartel to assassinate the ambassador to Saudi Arabia by blowing up a bomb in a crowded restaurant in Washington?”^[19]

[edit] Act of war

Several senior U.S. politicians, both Democrat and Republican, have said that this plot could constitute an act of war by Iran. Senator Carl Levin, a Democrat who serves as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee says the plot may be an act of war against the United States. Republican Representative Michael McCaul shared his view.^[20] Republican Senator Mark Kirk called the plot an “act of war” and called on the Obama administration to consider sanctioning the Central Bank of Iran in response. Similarly, Republican Congressman Peter King, currently chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said Iran’s actions constituted “an act of war”.^[21]

[edit] International reactions

US President Barack Obama stated: “Even if at the highest levels there was not detailed operational knowledge, there has to be accountability with respect to anybody in the Iranian government engaging in this kind of activity.”^[22] Vice President Joe Biden said that Iran would be held accountable for the plot and described it as “an outrage that violates one of the fundamental premises upon which nations deal with one another and that is the sanctity and safety of their diplomats”.^[23] John Boehner, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, said: “It’s a very serious breach of international behavior, and I would hope that our administration would hold the Iranian government – hold their feet to the fire over the actions that have been alleged in this complaint.”^[24] Secretary of State Hilary Clinton called the incident a “flagrant violation of international and United States law”.^[25]
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denied the accusations, calling them a “fabrication”.^[9] Mohammad Khazaee, the Ambassador of Iran to the United Nations, stated that he was “shocked to hear such a big lie” and that the version of events presented by the United States was an “insult to the common sense”.^[26] Khazaee wrote in a letter to Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon that Iran “strongly and categorically rejects these fabricated and baseless allegations, based on the suspicious claims by an individual.”^[27] Ali Larijani, chairman of the Iranian parliament, said that the claims asserted by the United States were a “childish game”.^[28] A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the Iranian Students News Agency that “Iran strongly denies the untrue and baseless allegations”.^[29] Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, described the allegations as “meaningless and absurd”.^[30]
The Kosovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a statement saying that “The Kosovo Government is relieved that the American authorities managed to prevent the attack in time, but remains concerned at this plot which is against democratic values and international law. We support the United States and Saudi Arabia in a full investigation of the organizers of the attack and we join in democratic states in requiring a clarification from the Iranian authorities for the planned attack. The Republic of Kosovo expresses its solidarity with the American and Saudi Arabian people, who supported Kosovo’s people in difficult times.”^[31]
Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, a former Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the United States, stated that Iranian involvement in the plot was “overwhelming” and that “somebody in Iran will have to pay the price”.^[10]
In France, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs released a statement saying: “For France, this is an extremely serious affair, an outrageous violation of international law, and its perpetrators and backers must be held accountable.”^[32]
The Dutch minister of foreign affairs, Uri Rosenthal, has stated that he is “very, very, very, really exceptionally worried” about the alleged Iranian involvement in a plotted terrorist attack on civilians in the United States.^[33] A statement released from the office of British Prime Minister David Cameron stated: “Indications that this plot was directed by elements of the Iranian regime are shocking. We will support measures to hold Iran accountable for its actions.”^[28]

[edit] Implications

Saudi Arabia and Iran have long competed for power and dominance in the Middle East.^[34] Some Saudi officials have said that the alleged assassination plot would represent an escalation in the confrontation between the two.^[34]

[edit] Aftermath

President Obama imposed new sanctions on Iran the next day, and the White House says that more actions will be taken.^[35]

[edit] See also

• Iran and state terrorism
• Iran – Saudi Arabia relations
• Iran – United States relations

[edit] References

[edit] External links

• United States Department of Justice complaint
• United States Department of Justice press release